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AI financing · Part 17 · settles Feb 16 · 116 days

Will the liability on Alphabet's credit derivatives exceed 1.86 percent of their gross notional amount at year end 2026?

How it settles

Yes if the credit derivatives liability divided by gross notional in Alphabet's 10-K at December 31, 2026 is above 1.86 percent, read on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, Alphabet Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2026, note on derivative financial instruments (CIK 1652044)

The exact question and the full rule

Does Alphabet's Form 10-K for 2026 show a liability on its credit derivatives above 1.86% of their gross notional amount, both as of December 31, 2026?

Divide the liability shown for credit derivatives in the table of fair values of outstanding derivative instruments by the gross notional amount of credit derivatives in the table of notional amounts, both as of December 31, 2026. The answer is yes if the ratio is above 1.86%; no if it is 1.86% or less. At June 30, 2026 the same two rows gave $815 million on $43,785 million, 1.86%, and at December 31, 2025 $69 million on $16,940 million, 0.41%. The estimated backstops not yet final are read into the Result and do not decide the test.

If the source is late or silent: If the 10-K is not public on EDGAR by February 16, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is February 26, 2027. If the 10-K no longer shows credit derivatives as a row of their own in both tables, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is the same two rows in Alphabet's Form 10-Q for the quarter ending March 31, 2027, by May 15, 2027.

a side

The cash flows cover it

Expects the ratio to fall as newly finalized backstops enter at low starting values relative to their notional.

If yes

The lease is already debt

Expects the ratio to stay high or rise, since these backstops are credit support functioning like debt for weak counterparties.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 18 people · 2 minutes
The cash flows cover it0 people argue nounsided7The lease is already debt11 people argue yes
Stronger if yes · 4 people

The lease is already debt

Michael BurrySep 24 · 2 claims

Meta's data center JV structure shows that the parties closest to the assets do not believe the value will hold: lenders would not bear residual value risk without protection, so Meta issued a residual value guarantee of up to $28 billion on…

Stronger if yes · 7 people

The weak link pays first

Kris has always said that if one pin falls among the AI companies many others would follow; they mostly thought of OpenAI, but consider Oracle a weak link in the chain as well.

A side · 7 people

The cash flows cover it

Weitz Investment Managementthe thesis · 2 claims

Microsoft is viewed as a great business with strong cash flows, intelligent capital allocation, and massive intellectual property that existed before the AI boom, and is believed to be reasonably priced with the financial strength to withstand…

Strongest against the CallHaim Zaltzman · Sep 29

The presence of guarantees and credit support in the market means that clearing the market, particularly at this size and speed, probably requires it, just as wrappers, insurance or guarantees get car and airplane deals done faster and at better…

What would change the Call
  • Finalizing the estimated 24.1 billion dollars of backstops awaiting final terms would add low-value notional and could lower the ratio.
The Call · Part 17

Leases pile up faster than they start, Alphabet's backstops cost more to carry, and Oracle's cash leans on its customers' prepayments.

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The Part

The Guarantee Has No Date

By mid-2026 the five largest builders of AI data centers had signed $1.12 trillion of leases not yet begun, by DeepStack's sum of their filings, 69% more than Moody's counted at the end of 2025. The leases reach the balance sheet on a schedule. The guarantees beside them have no date.

Chart: One obligation, five totals · Data Desk