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Semiconductors · Thesis 03 · settles Nov 10 · 18 days · rung 2/3

Will TSMC's October 2026 revenue be at least 40 percent higher than October 2025?

How it settles

Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 and October 2025 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table. Yes if October 2026 is 40.0 percent or more above October 2025, no if it is below 40.0 percent. Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)

The exact question and the full rule

Did TSMC's revenue for October 2026 grow at or above 40.0% from October 2025?

Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for October 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with October 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 40.0%; no if it is below 40.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If the table does not carry October 2026 by November 25, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.

If no

Customers limit the foundry's reach

No: customers push back or shift volume elsewhere, so growth comes in below 40 percent.

If yes

The foundry sets the price

Yes: TSMC is the only real source of leading advantage chips, so customers pay up and growth stays at or above 40 percent.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 4 people · 2 minutes
Customers limit the foundry's reach1 people argue noThe foundry sets the price3 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Customers limit the foundry's reach

Invest in AssetsMar 14

ASML's EUV and High-NA lithography machines are the only technology capable of producing advanced chips, making every leading semiconductor roadmap dependent on ASML, which generates a massive backlog and pricing power.

Stronger if yes · 3 people

The foundry sets the price

KrisAug 18

All leading chip designers and new entrants depend on TSMC for access to most advanced and many less advanced semiconductor nodes. This creates structural demand independent of any individual designer's success.

What would change the Call
  • TSMC's own fourth quarter guidance, given at its October results, would move the expected growth rate.
The Call · Thesis 03 · The foundry sets the price

The house leans to "The foundry sets the price".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Does the concentration of leading-edge chipmaking give TSMC pricing power over its customers?

TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025. The tests read its monthly revenue as the Taiwan Stock Exchange publishes it.