guest
Semiconductors · Thesis 03 · settles Jan 11 · 80 days

Will TSMC's December 2026 revenue be at least 30 percent higher than December 2025?

How it settles

Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for December 2026 and December 2025 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table. Yes if December 2026 is 30.0 percent or more above December 2025, no if it is below 30.0 percent. Taiwan Stock Exchange OpenAPI, monthly revenue of listed companies (t187ap05_L)

The exact question and the full rule

Did TSMC's revenue for December 2026 grow at or above 30.0% from December 2025?

Read TSMC's (2330) revenue for December 2026 in the Taiwan Stock Exchange's monthly revenue table and compare it with December 2025 in the same table. The answer is yes if revenue is up at or above 30.0%; no if it is below 30.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If the table does not carry December 2026 by January 25, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later correction of the month does not change the reading.

If no

Customers limit the foundry's reach

No: customers push back or shift volume elsewhere, so December growth comes in below 30 percent.

If yes

The foundry sets the price

Yes: TSMC is the only real source of leading advantage chips, so customers pay up and growth stays at or above 30 percent through year end.

50%
NoYes

No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.

The case · 4 people · 2 minutes
Customers limit the foundry's reach1 people argue noThe foundry sets the price3 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 1 people

Customers limit the foundry's reach

Invest in AssetsMar 14

ASML's EUV and High-NA lithography machines are the only technology capable of producing advanced chips, making every leading semiconductor roadmap dependent on ASML, which generates a massive backlog and pricing power.

Stronger if yes · 3 people

The foundry sets the price

KrisAug 18

All leading chip designers and new entrants depend on TSMC for access to most advanced and many less advanced semiconductor nodes. This creates structural demand independent of any individual designer's success.

What would change the Call
  • October and November 2026 readings coming in below 30 percent growth would lower the expected December number.
The Call · Thesis 03 · The foundry sets the price

The house leans to "The foundry sets the price".

The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

3 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Does the concentration of leading-edge chipmaking give TSMC pricing power over its customers?

TSMC's revenue for September 2026 was NT$511.9 billion, 54.6% above September 2025. The tests read its monthly revenue as the Taiwan Stock Exchange publishes it.