Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 53.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 53.0%; no if it is below 53.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
SMIC stays the sole confirmed source
No if equipment orders cool or shift timing, pulling year on year growth below 53 percent.
If yes
Process knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC
Yes if chipmaker spending on new equipment stays strong and matches analyst expectations near 53 percent growth.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
— You
— CallOct 22
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— Readersshows from 5
The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 47, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 4 people · 2 minutes
SMIC stays the sole confirmed source3 people argue noProcess knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC1 people argue yes
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Once the manufacturing knowledge behind N+2 and N+3 is transferred to HLMC/Hua Hong and the same learning feeds accelerator programs, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so an entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the…
What would change the Call
Applied Materials' own quarterly revenue guidance given at its prior earnings call would move this number.
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will a mainland Chinese foundry other than SMIC publicly confirm volume production at a 7nm-class (N+2) or better logic node before 2027-12-31?
Process learning diffuses from SMIC to Hua Hong/HLMC and other domestic fabs, widening the choke point so that entity-list controls aimed at single firms stop determining outcomes.