SEMI · T14
Will a mainland Chinese foundry other than SMIC publicly confirm volume production at a 7nm-class (N+2) or better logic node before 2027-12-31?
Process learning diffuses from SMIC to Hua Hong/HLMC and other domestic fabs, widening the choke point so that entity-list controls aimed at single firms stop determining outcomes.
Questions 6Open 6Call held 0Call missed 0
Process knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC
State-directed licensing and personnel transfer move SMIC's N+2/N+3 process knowledge to peer fabs like HLMC and Hua Hong, with the same learning feeding accelerator programs. Once this diffusion happens, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so a mainland foundry other than SMIC confirms volume production at a 7nm-class or better node before 2027 ends. An entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the outcome.
1 voice
SMIC stays the sole confirmed source
No mainland Chinese foundry other than SMIC publicly confirms volume production at a 7nm-class or better logic node before 2027 ends. Export restrictions on advanced tools and inputs keep process knowledge bottlenecked at SMIC even as China invests in domestic substitutes elsewhere in the stack. Only SMIC is credibly identified as the source of sub-10nm Chinese logic through the window.
3 voices
The questions
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