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Models & labs · Thesis 89 · settles Oct 29 · 5 days · rung 2/3

Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 13.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

5 people · 5 claims2 sides2 machines

The other numbers are hidden until you lock yours. The readers, the machines and the Call are waiting.

The two sides

If no

The case against it

No, expects growth to slow toward analyst estimates near 12.2%, landing below 13.5%.

If yes

Cost per token falls faster than price

Yes, expects growth to stay strong, continuing the roughly 20% pace seen in the prior quarter.

How it settles

Compare revenue from Amazon's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025 on SEC EDGAR. Yes if growth is 13.5 percent or more, no if below. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Amazon (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the revenue of Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 13.5% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?

Compare the revenue that Amazon reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 13.5%; no if it is below 13.5%.

If the source is late or silent: If Amazon has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
The case against it3 people argue noCost per token falls faster than price2 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 3 people

The case against it

SaasholicJul 7

Traditional SaaS had nearly zero marginal costs so the customer J-curve bent upward automatically. AI inverts this: cost to serve scales with usage because every query triggers inference and agent runs consume tokens. As AI improves and token costs…

Stronger if yes · 2 people

Cost per token falls faster than price

Michael SpencerMay 28

As inference costs decline through hardware improvements, software optimization, or volume leverage, a vendor can either cut prices or expand margins. Anthropic is expanding margins: compute spend per revenue dollar falling from 0.71 to 0.56 while…

The Call's side, the strongest voice against it and what would change it appear after you lock your number.

Open the dossierThe thesis
The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will the median trailing gross margin of US-listed AI-native application software companies reporting AI inference as cost of revenue be at least 70% in their fiscal 2027 filings?

Cost-per-token declines and cohort maturation lift AI application gross margins back toward classic software levels (70%+) rather than leaving them structurally compressed by variable inference costs.

All 6 questions
Results Night · October 27, 20263d 10:20:113 questions settleFollow the night