guest

MODEL · T08

Will the median trailing gross margin of US-listed AI-native application software companies reporting AI inference as cost of revenue be at least 70% in their fiscal 2027 filings?

Cost-per-token declines and cohort maturation lift AI application gross margins back toward classic software levels (70%+) rather than leaving them structurally compressed by variable inference costs.

Questions 6Open 6Call held 0Call missed 0

Cost per token falls faster than price

Caching, routing, smaller distilled models and maturing user cohorts cut inference cost per user faster than usage per user grows, restoring operating leverage. Reported gross margins of AI-native application vendors expand toward software norms, validating the J-curve rather than the cost-inversion thesis.

2 voices

The case against it

Introduction of real inference costs that scale with customer usage instead of marginal cost approaching zero, so traditional J-curve where customer lifetime value rises with retention no longer holds; retained customers become more expensive to serve, compressing margins. Enterprise AI adoption whose per-seat compute and inference spend rises faster than the wage bill it displaces, so budgets exhausted early, licenses cancelled, and margin drag disclosed on earnings calls. It would show first if median gross margin for the cohort stays below 70% or declines year over year in fiscal 2027.

3 voices

The questions

  1. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 11.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

  2. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 13.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

  3. Settles Oct 29open

    Will Amazon's revenue grow at least 15.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

  4. Settles Oct 28open

    Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 15.5% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

  5. Settles Oct 28open

    Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 16.8% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

  6. Settles Oct 28open

    Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 18.0% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?

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