MODEL · T08
Will the median trailing gross margin of US-listed AI-native application software companies reporting AI inference as cost of revenue be at least 70% in their fiscal 2027 filings?
Cost-per-token declines and cohort maturation lift AI application gross margins back toward classic software levels (70%+) rather than leaving them structurally compressed by variable inference costs.
Questions 6Open 6Call held 0Call missed 0
Cost per token falls faster than price
Caching, routing, smaller distilled models and maturing user cohorts cut inference cost per user faster than usage per user grows, restoring operating leverage. Reported gross margins of AI-native application vendors expand toward software norms, validating the J-curve rather than the cost-inversion thesis.
2 voices
The case against it
Introduction of real inference costs that scale with customer usage instead of marginal cost approaching zero, so traditional J-curve where customer lifetime value rises with retention no longer holds; retained customers become more expensive to serve, compressing margins. Enterprise AI adoption whose per-seat compute and inference spend rises faster than the wage bill it displaces, so budgets exhausted early, licenses cancelled, and margin drag disclosed on earnings calls. It would show first if median gross margin for the cohort stays below 70% or declines year over year in fiscal 2027.
3 voices
The questions
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