Will Microsoft's revenue grow at least 18.0% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025?
How it settles
Compare revenue from Microsoft's 10-Q or 10-K for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025 on SEC EDGAR. Yes if growth is 18 percent or more, no if below. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Microsoft (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
The exact question and the full rule
Did the revenue of Microsoft for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 18.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?
Compare the revenue that Microsoft reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 18.0%; no if it is below 18.0%.
If the source is late or silent: If Microsoft has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
The case against it
No, expects growth to land near analyst estimates around 16.7%, below the 18.0% mark.
If yes
Cost per token falls faster than price
Yes, expects growth to accelerate past the 17.7% pace seen in the prior quarter and above analyst estimates.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
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The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 27, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 5 people · 2 minutes
The case against it3 people argue noCost per token falls faster than price2 people argue yes
Traditional SaaS had nearly zero marginal costs so the customer J-curve bent upward automatically. AI inverts this: cost to serve scales with usage because every query triggers inference and agent runs consume tokens. As AI improves and token costs…
As inference costs decline through hardware improvements, software optimization, or volume leverage, a vendor can either cut prices or expand margins. Anthropic is expanding margins: compute spend per revenue dollar falling from 0.71 to 0.56 while…
What would change the Call
Microsoft's reported revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 compared with the same quarter in 2025 would move the call.
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will the median trailing gross margin of US-listed AI-native application software companies reporting AI inference as cost of revenue be at least 70% in their fiscal 2027 filings?
Cost-per-token declines and cohort maturation lift AI application gross margins back toward classic software levels (70%+) rather than leaving them structurally compressed by variable inference costs.