Will memory makers keep earning scarcity profits from AI demand through 2027?

Supply catches up

Memory margins staying high while the replacement cost of a memory business is small relative to hyperscaler annual capex invites new entrants, less memory-dependent designs, and eventual price wars that crash memory profits. Immature HBM front-end and stacking yields sit against commodity DRAM, which pays more per wafer and yields over 3x the bits, so minimal HBM wafer allocation and a near-total commodity DRAM revenue mix persist. It would show first if DRAM contract prices decline sequentially for two or more consecutive quarters while bit shipments rise.

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