AI financing · settles Nov 1018 days
Will Nebius's latest quarter still price short-term compute at a premium over one-to-three-year contracts?
5 people · 5 claims2 sides3 machines
If noThe borrowing is rational
Sees the borrowing behind this buildout as rational fuel, supporting durable pricing gaps rather than a bubble about to pop.
If yes1999 capex plus 2008 credit
Sees heavy 1999-style capex paired with loose credit as a fuse that can keep rich short-term pricing burning until it snaps.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Jan 170 days
Will Alphabet stock rise the day after it reveals a bigger 2027 capital budget than 2026?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides3 machines
If noThe return is not there
Argues the spending is not showing a matching return, so a bigger budget should read as value destruction and push shares down.
If yesThe spending is defense
Argues the capital budget is defensive positioning, so investors should reward the bigger number with a higher stock price.
AI financing · settles Oct 285 days
Will the Fed funds target rate be higher right after the October 28, 2026 Fed meeting than right before it?
11 people · 11 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideGrowth: yields are catching up
Expects yields near a peak and a buying opportunity for bonds as the cycle behaves normally, pointing away from a hike.
If yesDebt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%
Sees the Fed trapped: hiking feeds a near $1 trillion interest bill, cutting despite 3.4% inflation also costs it the long end.
AI financing · settles Oct 296 days
Will Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta's combined operating cash flow rise from June to September 2026?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides
If noThe cash has to triple
Says tech is pricing explosive AI demand while the companies who would pay for it see a much more modest outlook, a mismatch.
If yesThe spending pays
Estimates heavy AI capex should drive roughly 2 trillion dollars of incremental revenue, supporting rising cash generation.
AI financing · settles Nov 2331 days
Will New Mexico approve the Project Jupiter fuel cell air permit by November 23, 2026?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides3 machines
If noThe spending pays
Sees AI infrastructure spending as justified by demand, supporting a smoother permit approval.
If yesThe cash has to triple
Sees the broader AI buildout as overbuilt, so projects like this face a tougher path to quick approval.
Apps & agents · settles Nov 311 days
Did Booking Holdings grow room nights and hold or raise its direct-booking share last quarter versus a year earlier?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides3 machines
If noEighteen months, or less
Thinks AI consumer agents are overhyped but not yet disruptive enough to hurt booking volumes or direct channel share soon.
If yesStill a demo
Argues AI apps remain unsuccessful 'app-slop', meaning little real effect yet on how travelers book or Booking's direct share.
Apps & agents · settles Nov 1624 days
Will Nike set a numeric margin target beyond fiscal 2027 at its November 2026 investor day?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides3 machines
a sideEighteen months, or less
Walker's view that consumer AI agents matter soon could push Nike to frame margin targets around faster channel shifts ahead.
a sideStill a demo
Sternstein's skepticism of AI-driven apps suggests Nike's margin targets may still lean on traditional retail and wholesale assumptions.
AI financing · settles Oct 285 days
Did Big Tech's combined depreciation grow faster than its combined operating income last quarter versus a year ago?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides3 machines
If noStill renting at January prices
Says GPUs run hot with still-early AI adoption, suggesting operating income growth can keep pace with rising depreciation.
If yesA model, not a price
Argues chipmakers' pricing stamina claims clash with the depreciation realities lenders actually face, implying depreciation outpaces profit.
AI financing · settles Jul 12262 days
Will the TSP C Fund close above $126.1817 on any business day from October 13, 2026 through July 12, 2027?
6 people · 6 claims2 sides3 machines
a sideA model, not a price
Burry: chip pricing stamina stories clash with the depreciation reality lenders face, so gains are not assured.
a sideStill renting at January prices
George: GPUs run hot already even though AI adoption and utilization data show it is still very early, supporting further upside.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Oct 285 days
Will Microsoft report 30 percent or less of its remaining performance obligations due as revenue in the next twelve months?
19 people · 19 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideFunded, not forecast
Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed, so the near term share should stay low as supply, not orders, is the limit.
If yesShipping is not earning
Even shipped revenue must clear ramps, pricing and collection, so the near term share is read as a signal, not a guarantee of profit.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Nov 1826 days
Will NVIDIA's days sales outstanding for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 be 51.1 days or more?
19 people · 19 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideFunded, not forecast
Demand is contracted, prepaid or oversubscribed, so collections should stay fast and days sales outstanding should stay low.
If yesShipping is not earning
Shipped revenue still must clear cash collection, so a rising days sales outstanding figure is read as a sign shipping outran payment.
Models & labs · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's third-quarter 2026 results give a dollar size or share for TPU or Anthropic contracts in Google Cloud's backlog?
23 people · 23 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe filing sets the price
A lab's valuation rests on provable revenue, so a disclosed contract figure here would be read as hard evidence of that revenue.
a sideThe frontier is still paid
Dollars stay concentrated at the frontier, so a disclosed TPU or Anthropic figure would confirm large committed frontier spending.
Models & labs · settles Oct 296 days
Will Amazon's third-quarter 2026 results name a customer at 10 percent or more of AWS revenue, or give Anthropic's AWS revenue share?
23 people · 23 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe filing sets the price
A lab's valuation needs provable revenue, so a disclosed Anthropic AWS share here would be read as hard evidence of that revenue.
a sideThe frontier is still paid
Dollars stay concentrated at the frontier, so a named large customer or disclosed Anthropic share would confirm that concentration.
Models & labs · settles Nov 1826 days
Will Nvidia name OpenAI or Anthropic as a 10 percent customer, or disclose their revenue share, by November 18, 2026?
23 people · 23 claims3 sides3 machines
If noOpen weights set the price
Expects cheaper open-weight models to take volume, diluting any single lab's share below a disclosable concentration threshold.
If yesThe frontier is still paid
Expects frontier labs' spending to stay concentrated and large enough that Nvidia would have to disclose their revenue share.
Power & grid · settles Dec 947 days
Will PJM's December 2026 capacity auction for 2029 to 2030 clear below the price cap set for that auction?
20 people · 20 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe bill no state can shield
Wholesale capacity scarcity reaches every bill regardless of state rules, supporting a clearing price at the cap again.
If yesThe plant is late
New supply keeps arriving later than planned, which supports the price clearing at the cap rather than below it.
Power & grid · settles Feb 22122 days
Will 2026 electric price hikes in PJM states beat other states by four points or more, while Texas rises less than the US?
20 people · 20 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideThe load pays its way
Expects no: costs land on whoever triggers them, so PJM households are not stuck covering grid build-out that isn't theirs.
If yesThe bill no state can shield
Expects yes: wholesale scarcity pricing hits every PJM bill directly and no state tariff can block it from showing up.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Oct 285 days
Will Alphabet's equipment spending hit 80% or more of its operating cash flow in Q3 2026?
21 people · 21 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe cash still covers it
Cloud sales and early contracts keep operating cash well ahead of the building spree, so the ratio stays below 80%.
If yesThe bill has moved to debt
Spending now outruns operating cash, pushing the ratio to 80% or more as debt and leases pick up the rest.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Nov 1018 days
Will Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together spend more on equipment than they bring in from operations in Q3 2026?
21 people · 21 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe cash still covers it
Combined cloud revenue still outpaces the buildout, so the four companies' operating cash covers their spending.
If yesThe bill has moved to debt
The four companies' combined spending now exceeds their combined operating cash, with debt and leases filling the gap.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Feb 12112 days
Will Alphabet, Amazon and Meta guide their 2027 capital spending to at least 25% more than 2026?
21 people · 21 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideThe cash still covers it
Growing cloud demand lets these companies keep funding bigger budgets, so guidance jumps 25% or more over 2026.
If yesThe bill has moved to debt
Spending keeps climbing past what operations earn, and 2027 guidance reflects debt-funded growth of 25% or more.
Hyperscalers & cloud · settles Feb 16116 days
Will the four biggest tech giants together spend more on equipment in 2026 than the cash their operations bring in?
21 people · 21 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe cash still covers it
Expects no: cloud, ad and AI sales grow fast enough that the companies' own operating cash still covers their building spree.
If yesThe bill has moved to debt
Expects yes: spending has outrun operating cash, so bonds and off-balance-sheet leases are already filling the gap.
AI financing · settles Dec 3169 days
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% or higher at any point from October 16 to December 31, 2026?
22 people · 22 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideThe boom pays the rate
A booming, deficit-fed economy with heavy AI spending pushes yields above 5.50% simply because growth is strong.
If yesThe two shocks compound
Oil-driven inflation plus AI borrowing push long rates past 5.50% as the Fed hikes into a stacked shock.
AI financing · settles Jan 1281 days
Will the EIA say Brent crude averaged above $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026?
22 people · 22 claims3 sides3 machines
a sideThe boom pays the rate
Strong global growth keeps oil demand and prices firm, supporting a fourth-quarter Brent average above $105.
If yesThe two shocks compound
Supply strain and high demand push Brent above $105, feeding into inflation and pressuring the Fed to hike.
AI financing · settles Apr 1160 days
Will long-run inflation expectations average above 2.60% in March 2027?
22 people · 22 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe two shocks compound
Oil costs bleeding into prices alongside heavy borrowing lift long-run inflation expectations past 2.60%.
If yesOil stays out of the core
Markets treat oil as temporary, keeping long-run inflation expectations anchored at or below 2.60%.
AI financing · settles Mar 31159 days
Will the federal employees' S&P 500 retirement fund fall 10% or more from its own peak between October 16, 2026 and March 31, 2027?
22 people · 22 claims3 sides3 machines
If noThe boom pays the rate
The boom keeps stocks and the C Fund climbing, so a 10% drop from its peak does not happen in this window.
If yesThe two shocks compound
Inflation and rate hikes stacking up finally hit stocks, dragging the C Fund down 10% or more from its high.